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Mexico, a Superpower?

This post is a continuation of last’s week’s ¨Review – The Next 100 Years¨, a book written by George Friedman, CEO of the largest private intelligence company in the world. In this post we will discuss how Mexico will one day challenge US power in North America.

2080 – Mexico´s rise to Power

Two eagles collide

 

Factors to take into consideration:

  1. Mexican inmigrants don´t usually lose their closeness with Mexico.
  2. Being neighbors with the USA is an economic advantage.
  3. Mexicans still feel like the USA stole their northern territory.

By 2070 Mexico´s economy will be in the top 10.

  • It´s currently #14 in GDP (production)
  • The second largest flow of money into Mexico, is the money Hispanic citizens in the US send to their families in Mexico.
  • Much like the millions of dollars produced by illegal alcohol sales in the USA during 1930´s, the billions of $$$ made by the drug cartels in Mexico will one day be ¨cleansed¨ through reinvesment in the country.

By 2070, the Hispanic citizens and inmigrants will constitute over 70% of the total population in former Mexican territories.

 

Source - US Census Bureau (2006)

 

Around 2080, tensions between USA and Mexico will escalate:

  1. Hispanic commnity will have a large representation in Congress.
  2. The rest of the US citizens will start feeling threatened by the growth of the Hispanic community.
  3. A Mexican secessionist movement will be born calling for the reintegration of these ¨Latino¨ states back to Mexico.

This minoritary Mexican secessionist movement (within the USA) will fuel the fire of the US conservative base. The American right-wing will label this movement an ¨insurrection¨ and will start calling for the inmediate deportation of all ¨Hispanics¨ back to Mexico.

The American goverment will respond by deporting all Mexicans who are not citizens back across the border. The Mexican seccesionis will then turn to vandalism and start revolting. The US will try to contain the revolt by mobilizing the National Guard and the US army.

The Mexican goverment will also mobilize its army to the border. The American actions will be viewed as racist ¨ethnic cleansing¨ by the Mexican goverment, whose right-wing party will start gaining massive support. While militarily superior, the US will not be facing the Mexican army. Instead it will be inmersed in an inner struggle to keep it´s southern states under control.

Territorial shifts aside, Given that the Hispanic community will be the biggest one in the US by 209o, the question will be:

Washington D.C or Mexico City?

Which city will be the capital of North America by 2100?

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Review ¨The Next 100 Years¨

A lot has changed in the last century. And, these changes don´t show any signs of slowing down.

Goverments paying inmigrants to come in? World War III? Mexico as a superpower? These are just a handful of predictions from George Friedman´s bestselling book ¨The Next 100 Years¨. Friedman is the Texan founder and CEO of STRATFOR, the world´s leading private intelligence company. So with a clear mind and open eyes, let´s take a glimpse at what the future might have in store.

Highlights of the Next Century

There is one basic principle in which Friedman bases his book on… The United States of America ¨superpower¨ status isn´t fading anytime soon. The Americans have merely hit a rough patch, but will continue being a superpower for decades to come. Trying to maintan it´s status as the #1 country in the world will be a task the US goverment will take very seriously.

2010s – USA / Islamic War

Whether United States is defeated or Iraq/Afghanistan remains a stalemate, that really won´t matter. As long as the Muslim world remains ethnically divided and fighting between themselves, it won´t pose a real threat to the US.

2020 – China´s expiration date

China´s current economical growth is the result of the country opening it´s market to capitalism. Such tremendous economical growth is causing stark differences between the rich coastal cities and poor central goverment. The coastal cities will eventually want more liberty. This in turn will leave the central chinese goverment two options: let the coastal cities drift away weakening the union or impose a more control over them. Both outcomes will cripple China´s economic power as a country.

2025 – Labor Force Crisis

Are you 18 and worried about finding a job? Don´t worry. By 2025, the ¨job crisis¨ will turn into a ¨labor force crisis¨.

With birth rate´s falling through out developed countries: a new laborforce will be needed to sustain the big, retiring ¨baby-boomer¨ generation. Currently, the birth rate of Europe and Japan is below the 2.1 child/woman ¨replacement level¨. This means that in a couple decades, developed countries are going to be filled with old people and lacking young ones.

European and japanese goverment´s will have to compete over inmigrants by offering them money and medical care packages. For the USA, whose birth rate level is higher, more lenient and open inmigration laws will solve the crisis. This increased flow of  inmigration and future innovations on robotics will help solve the 2025´s labor shortage.

2030 – Third Fall of Russia

Oh, yes! The Russians are back for a rematch. This next decade we will see Russia get economically stronger. This economic strength will in turn lead them to expand their military branches. With a strong military, the Russian goverment will then be interested in re-establishing the Soviet Union´s former sphere of influence in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Western Europe won´t help Eastern Europe, because Germany (EUs key player) depends too much on Russian gas. Thus Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe will turn to the USA for support. The United States will gladly ¨contain¨ Russia through its support of Eastern Europe (west), Turkey (south) and Japan (east).

The resulting ¨Cold War¨ will be very much like the last one, but shorter. This time a non-direct confrontation, alternative energy sources, a declining population: will all play agains´t Russia. Their economy will collapse, followed by their military. And once again Russia will disintegrate into an even weaker nation.

2050 – World War III

With Russia and China out of the picture, by 2050 the most powerful nations in order of strength will be

  1. USA
  2. Turkey: with a sphere of influence over the Middle East and lower Russia.
  3. Japan: with a sphere of influence over the Pacific and western China.
  4. European Union
  5. Poland: with a sphere of influence over Eastern Europe and Russia.

The Americans will see that its spot as the #1 country is being challenged by its former allies Turkey and Japan. The USA will do all it can to ¨contain¨ the expansion of these two countries. Turkey and Japan won´t enjoy feeling ¨contained¨ and will become secret war-allies. Japan will then stage a ¨Pearl Harbor¨ in space, taking down as many U.S satellites as it can. Then in less than 15 minutes, most of the US Airforce will be destroyed.

With Poland, China, and Britain as allies, the USA will strike back with it´s reserve forces. The result of the war will be determined by whoever controls the air and space. No nuclear devices will be employed (as they would be seen undesired by all). The European Union will remain mostly neutral.

After almost 2 years of war, by 2052 the USA will be able to take full control of space (high ground) and win. The war won´t  be a ¨total war¨ of societies destroying societies. Instead a peace treaty will be drafted in which the defeated nations won´t lose much and the USA (and allies) are allowed military control of space.

2060/2070 – Golden Decades for the US

Years of economic, technological and social prosperity.

2080 – Mexico´s Rise to Power

To be continued on next week´s post – ¨Mexico, a Superpower?¨


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Bush and Obama: Dumb & Dumber?

With the recent Republican victory at the House of Representatives, will the economy finally rise from the depths?

But more importantly: Is Barack Obama running our economy to the ground?

Well lets start by taking a look at the Dow Jones, the most recognized economic indicator in the United States.

Humph… thats odd. The current economic market doesn´t look so bad. Then again, maybe the Dow Jones is influenced by the government in order to cover-up the economic blunders.

So let´s take a look at the second most prestigious economic indicator, the NASDAQ,  who follows the 5000 most powerful companies in the country.

It actually seems like the economy has been rising since Obama swore office in January 2009. Naaa.. the NASDAQ has to be wrong. We all know that the  NASDAQ doesn´t incorporate the investment market and can be dangerously speculative at times.

It´s decided, lets take a glimpse at the  S&P 500: the most represantive (realistic) index of the US market, that also incorporates the investment sector.

Well, the numbers speak for themselves: it looks like Obama isn´t so dumb after all. In two years as president, he has actually steadily increased the market value of all indicators, surpassed two indicators compared to pre-crisis US economy (2006), and gotten fairly close on the third one.

  • Dow Jones (2006/2010): 11,000/11,178
  • NASDAQ (2006/2010): 2,010/2,532
  • S&P 500 (2006/2010): 1,280/1,197

We don´t care about the markets. We want jobs and the unemployment rate is amonsgt the highest in US history. Surely President Obama is the one to blame. Well, before jumping to conclusions, lets take a closer look at the unemployment rate.

Clearly, one can observe that the rise of unemployment precedes Obama´s presidency. If anything, such unenployment crisis started in George W. Bush´s last year as president. (+ 2.7% in only ONE year) Since Obama swore office, the rate has only increased by 1.9% and appears to have been stabilized over the last year. Simply put: Bush tossed a HOT potato at Obama. Obama suffered some burns, BUT has been able to hold on to it.

So for all the politicians out there who claim that ¨the economy is worse than ever¨, that ¨unemployment is Obama´s fault¨ and that ¨change hasn´t come¨, you my political friends are either:

  • Blind
  • Dumb
  • Liars
  • Or all of the above

And finally, Why giving a majority of Congress to the Republicans is a dangerous solution, or at least, very unproductive:

Reason # 1

In the Puerto Rican elections of 2004: the red party won the executive branch and the blue party won the legislative branch. What followed were the 4 most unproductive years in the history of the Puertorican government. Why? Because anything that the ¨President¨ proposed would not be approved by Congress, and anything that Congress proposed would be vetoed by the ¨President¨…

When the legislative and executive branches of a government aren´t willing to cooperate (For instance….The Republicans, who have been agaisnt´t 99% of Obama´s policies) the result is government paralysis. And God knows, a paralized US government in the speedy socio-economical world of today… would be like signing up a turtle for the Kentucky Derby.

Reason #2

The leap has been made...

Whether we like or not… the stimulus package of billions of dollars has already been launched. We can´t take it back now. So the question is not whether we should have been launched or not, but rather ¨How can we make the best of it?

While I, and nobody for that matter, can know if Obama ´s plan will work (as its results are designed to be long-term), one thing I do know for certain: undermining the plan will only make the situation worse. Obama made a bet to obtain a better future in America, and cutting holes into the parachute carrying all our money doesn´t seem like a bright idea.

January 20, 2009 – the day CHANGE man took office. Only six months passed before the vultures started circuling him like a carcass. A year later, and the media couldn´t stop rambling on how he hadn´t ¨delivered¨ his promises.  Two years later, and already the public is withdrawing their support. We all seem to forget the joy we felt when the election results rolled in. Those brief hours were hope returned to the American spirit. But those days are long gone now.

I guess that if these last two years have taught me anything it´s this:

Negativity, Cynicism, Haste – weight more in our hearts than – Hope, Faith, Patience… to our presidents.

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